Analysis of Macro-Economic Indicators

Fundamental economic concepts applied to capital markets
Economic cycle
  • Growth and fluctuations, cycles: recovery, slow-down, recession…
  • From productivity cycle to interest rates
  • Inflation, disinflation, currency deflation: cyclic mechanisms and external shocks
  • Economic cycle, profit cycle, yield curve and equity markets
  • Imbalances: balance of payments, debt, speculative bubbles
  • USA/Europe growth spread and applied investment strategy
Economic growth
  • Classification and positioning in the cycle
  • Growth measurement
  • Statistical manipulation and interpretation
  • Anticipation : analysis and use of growth indicators
  • GDP (definition and components), advanced indicators (ISM, …), unemployment, consumer confidence, etc.
  • United States and the Eurozone
Behaviour of economic agents
Revenues, savings and consumption
  • Main determinants of consumption, from employment to revenues
  • Analysis of the main economic aggregates during the recession
Productive investments
  • Savings, real-estate and «wealth effect»
  • Main determinants of corporate investment
Foreign trade
  • Influence of FX rates
Analysis of inflation indicators
  • Output gap, Phillips curve
  • RPI, PPI, commodity prices
  • Implicit market anticipations.
  • United States and Euro-zone
  • Practical workshop
  • Analyse current inflationary pressures in various economies
Anticipation of the monetary policy and its consequences
Setting base rates: Taylor rule
  • Comparing the Fed and the ECB’s strategies
  • Monetary policy and quantitative easing
  • Theory and reality, transmission canals, Taylor rules, output-gap, …
  • Practical workshop
  • Analyse the Fed and the ECB’s last decision and anticipate on the next one
Sensitivity of various types of assets to macroeconomic variables
Fundamentals of market forecasting
  • Determinants of FX rates, short- and long-term interest rates
  • Determinants in equity markets
Commodities: reasons for rise, speculation, market conditions
  • Long term imbalances of international commodity markets
  • Commodity prices, inflation and deflation
Current macro-economic situation and asset allocation

  • Know the most important characteristics of economic cycles
  • Understand the interference between economic cycles and the long-term evolution in a global economy
  • Understand and analyse the most important economic indicators: inflation, productivity, GDP, consumer confidence…
  • Understand and anticipate the monetary policy decisions
  • Know the basic notions of yield curve and asset allocation
  • Know how to identify the current position within the economic cycle and identify the probable consequences in capital markets
  • Know how to communicate properly with economists, strategists, managers and clients
  • Practical and hands-on approach applied to current events
  • No prerequisites on macro-economics
  • Managers and administration assistants
  • Sales
  • Financial intermediaries
  • Financial directors
  • Risk directors
  • Audit / Inspection
  • Company treasurers
  • Institutional investors
  • Financial departments of local governments
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